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85,347 Views • Jan 21, 2024 • Click to toggle off description
The Martingale Strategy aims to turn the house's advantage on it's head. I want to explore the math behind the strategy and discover if we can reliably win enough times to retire to the Bahamas...
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#maths #casino #money #science
Chapters:
00:00 Can We Use Math To Beat Roulette
1:08 The Martingale Strategy
2:58 Ad Read
4:05 Optimal Stopping Problems
6:02 Breaking Down The Math
7:55 Introducing Markov Chains
10:05 The Downside of The Martingale Strategy
11:20 The Martingale Strategy in the Real World
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Views : 85,347
Genre: Science & Technology
Date of upload: Jan 21, 2024 ^^
Rating : 4.737 (142/2,020 LTDR)
RYD date created : 2024-05-02T00:37:22.073868Z
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YouTube Comments - 219 Comments
Top Comments of this video!! :3
Ahh Martingale. The "strategy" casinos love
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About 20 years ago a friend decided to join a group of us in Vegas. He jumped in the car and drove in from California. First thing he did was go to the Big Wheel (*cough*). He put $5 down and lost. $10 and lost. $20 and lost. $40 and lost. $80 and lost. $160 and lost. $320 and lost. Sorry.... $500 limit on bets, can't double anymore. And he let out a stream of expletives and stormed outta the casino, got back in the car, and drove back to California. Don't think he's ever been back.
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Step 1. Start with infinite money
Step 2. Process the existential question "why are we here"
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Martingale is the Fastest way to go BROKE.
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Note: if you have another person with you they can max bet when needed to add an extra bet. With 3 people with you, you can add 2 extra bets. This still would only work in the short term and the casino would catch on to you anyway.
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The reverse is more interesting and also more useful. Given a certain odds and goal, what size should you bet? It is often used in the financial markets, and causes hedgefunds to collapse as the real world doesn't match the neat models used to predict the outcome....
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I'd be interested to see what the expected value of this strategy is (i.e. the version presented at the end). With a larger maximum bet, the probability of winning (at least once) is higher, but the cost of a loss increases exponentially, and could be enough to skew the expected value.
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Haha. Totally love gambling math vids! This is a good one.
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Casinos have betting limits you’re not going to be able to double your bet forever at most casino if the minimum bet is $5 the max is going to be $1500 do you can only double up for 6 or 7 bets max, every casino have betting limits to counter this strategy. The ball landing on either red or black 10-15 times in a row is pretty common.
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Finance bros call this strategy "picking up pennies in front of the steamroller"... It's easy to win short-term gains by taking outsize risks (e.g. by selling naked calls). The question is not ~if~ you will go bankrupt, but when.
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Fibonacci dozens are where its at. Modify it a bit based on tables history and its honestly hard to lose. Just gotta know when to leave.
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I didn't know this strategy actually had a name, but I thought it up myself few years ago when playing online roulette. I put in €10 into my account and started out putting 1c on (eg) red, and if I won I'd put 1c on black.
But if I lost I'd put 2c on red, and if I lost again I'd put 4c on red, and so on...
And when I had doubled my initial €10 I raised it to an initial bet of 2c.
And when I doubled my money again (to €40) I raised it to 4c, etc.
Then after a while I cashed out (I think it was about €30), and started again at 1c, so that I'd be up no matter what happened.
I made it to about €300, and then cashed out €200, and thought I had figured out how to get rich, and so I continued on.
But when I got to around €600 (think I was making bets of ~40c) it all went to hell, I hit 13 reds in a row and lost it all! But I was still up over €200 so I didn't mind too much.
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Very cool video, I love your channel, just found it! 🙂 I tried using trend prediction from the study of Chaos Theory to win at Blackjack in the casinos. Chaos Theory shows that the odds of any given coin toss are not 50%, that is, each flip shouldn't be considered by itself, independent of the others. There ARE runs of 'good luck' and 'bad luck', and counterintuitively, the longer a run goes, the more likely it is to continue. Statisticians don't like this, but the data from the study of dynamical systems show it to be true. (Regardless of whether they can explain it, it's still true.) And of course you are right, casinos capp the maximum bet so you can't employ the 'double your bet' strategy to win using that method. Love this video. 🙂
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You’re brilliant at explaining the world.
Great videos.
Would love to watch a video about a fact all virologists agree on and that is (a physical virus has never been found in any living thing) What does this mean?
The only physical viruses found have to be grown in a lab before they can be seen. Why is this ?
it’s puzzling.
They can detect a virus in living things but can’t physically find one.
It’s Like having a metal detector going off all the time but when you dig into the ground you find nothing. Very strange.
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I've just got on to your videos mate and I love your ability to explain really technical things, in this case maths... As for me I didn't go past year 8... 😅
And yet I understand exactly everything you're explaining..
I could be partly because I spent a year or so trialing and tweaking the Martin Gale strategy on roulette on roulette on the downtime of my night shifts 😅
Another great video mate
And I can definitely say from experience...
7-9 x red or black comes up way more often than most people think
One strategy I used and use in casinos when I'm rarely out at them with mates is watch for the tables that have previously had a run of 6-9 x one colour or odd / even and then use the strategy for a short amount of time as you mentioned then walk away with your winnings
It's a fun trick to do in front of your mates as they think you are some kind of genius 😅
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of course with an emphasis only on winning, you'd simply keep the first win. Playing again but allowing your win to remain for the next bet and so on, effectively letting the wins continue. Hence your winnings would be 1, then 2, then 4, then 8 etc.,. losses would always be only 1 unit per spin.
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I haven't heard of even one casino removing it's roulette wheels due to losses.
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I have used this method before, never knew it was a 'known thing' though but yeah sadly crazy unlikely things happen in casinos to the point where you are convinced it's fixed!
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7:00 "What is the probability of losing 7 times" - Pretty high, happens each day, if you dont believe me go to any online live casino and wait a bit or to speed things up go to few different online casinos and check recent history, you will see a streak of many black/red or even/odd combinations. Toss out the % numbers, each roll is unique, black can happen 100 times in a row, but before this happens the casino will stop the operation.
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