Is Google Search in the early stages of being disrupted by LLM's (ChatGPT, Grok, Claude, etc)?
131 - 131
Netflix hit a new all-time high today. To celebrate, here are a few facts about Netflix:
• Currently has 277.7 million subscribers
• Reached $36.28 billion in revenue in past 12 months
• Gained 39.24 million subscribers in the past 12 months
• Revenue grew 16% last quarter, faster than Google, Amazon, Tesla, Apple, and Microsoft.
• Generated $6.82 billion in free cash flow in past 12 months. That's three times the amount Tesla did, while Netflix has less than half the market cap of Tesla.
• Stock-based Comp has gone down every quarter since Q4 of 2022
• Operating margin has gone from 4.3% in 2016 to 27% in 2024, and is expected to continue climbing.
• Share count was reduces by 2.6% last year through buybacks
• Free cash flow per share grew 63% last year.
527 - 70
We've finally release KPI's on Qualtrim.com (key performance indicators). I think it looks so good. It's only limited to a few stocks right now but will be expanding rapidly. Here's an example of how the revenue by segment looks for Amazon, with the four key pillars of the company.
On a side note, friendly reminder: If you join the patreon today you get the rest of the month for free. This gives you time to trial it out, risk-free. As always it's satisfaction guaranteed or money back.
Happy investing everyone!
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One piece of feedback I've received is I spend too much time talking about the same companies (ones I own and carefully monitor). I agree with this criticism. Upcoming next week I'll be covering a list of companies I do not own and doing in-depth analysis on them. If you have any companies in particular that you would like to get my take on, leave a comment and I will consider it.
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Hot take: Boeing's next CEO should have 100% of compensation tied to keeping their number of safety build quality incidents below Airbus.
If it's below, pay them well, if it's above, zero pay.
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Are stock market valuations getting to a tipping point?
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One observation I have always thought is funny:
People are quick to acknowledge the S&P500 and QQQ are very difficult to beat, some say it's nearly impossible to beat.
But investors rarely point out that the index never looks at PE ratios or valuations, ever. The Index only market cap weight stocks.
How can an index, that does not factor in valuation at all, do well over such a long period of time? Isn't it essential to be focused on valuation to have a winning investment strategy?
The answer is the index gives more weight to more successful companies as they grow, meaning that an index will naturally prioritize holding compounders as the largest positions and they will never sell them based on valuation.
The index structure of prioritizing winners and holding them long-term is the winning strategy.
The error that individual investors so frequently make is doing the exact opposite of the index:
- They prioritize low-quality "cheap" companies that eventually fall off.
- Instead of selling losers, individual investors buy them up, because they're "cheaper" than the winners.
- They sell winners because they have become too expensive, selling out of winners leads to a portfolio full of losers.
- They are hyper-focused on valuation while the index, which beats out individual investors, has zero focus on valuation.
Individual investors do the exact opposite of the index, and then point to the index and say "look, nobody can beat the index! It's too difficult!!".
I'm not suggesting that all valuations should be ignored. But perhaps a greater emphasis on holding winners, selling losers, and investing with a longer-term perspective would help the average investor's return.
1K - 90
Costco just declared a $15 special dividend. Based on the amount of shares I have, that's $1,297 for me. On top of a 39% return this year.
This is a $6.7 billion dividend, with a starting cash balance of $17 billion, and long-term debt and lease liabilities of $9 billion. Meaning that even after paying this enormous dividend Costco will still have more cash than debt.
They also grew EPS above expectations and revenue in line. This is what a compounder looks like.
1.1K - 70
Just hit 300,000 subscribers. Thanks so much to everyone who follows along!
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I don't plan on making a video about this. But I wanted to post it here for the sake of transparency.
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The Joseph Carlson Show is a series about growing wealth through purchasing stocks. We discuss breaking investment news, commentary on current events, answer community questions, and show the progress of a 6 figure portfolio be built into a million-dollar portfolio.