What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update May 24, 2024
No signs of magma accumulation slowing down
- Gusty winds into the night could affect the sensitivity of seismometers
- Deformation data show that landrising at Svartsengi continues continuously
- About 18 million cubic meters of magma have been added to the magma chamber since March 16
- Continued likelihood of a new magma flow and another eruption
- Most likely to erupt on the Sundhnúks crater series
- Eruption warning may be very short
There have been about 140 earthquakes around the magma tunnel in the last two solar cycles, all below 2.0 in magnitude. Most of the quakers were in the areas between Stóra-Scógfell and Hagafell on the one hand and south of Þorbjarna on the other. Today, fewer earthquakes have been recorded in the area compared to the past few days. It is due to strong winds that affect the sensitivity of seismometers to detect even the smallest tremors. Until nightfall, the weather continues to affect the sensitivity of the Norwegian Meteorological Agency's earthquake system, but not other measuring devices used for monitoring in the area.
Deformation data show that landrising at Svartsengi continues continuously. It indicates that magma continues to accumulate under Svartsengi. Model calculations estimate that around 18 million cubic meters of magma have been added there since March 16, when the last eruption began. The total volume of magma under Svartsengi is now greater than it has been before the last events. There are no signs that magma accumulation has slowed down. This means that the pressure in the system is increasing, and therefore it is only possible to estimate that there is still a considerable probability of a new magma flow and another eruption in the Sundhnúks crater series. However, there is considerable uncertainty as to when it will happen, but the notice could be very short.
The graph shows the estimated amount of magma that has been added under Svartsengi between the eruptions or magma flows that have occurred since November 2023. The slight changes seen in the graph are within the margin of error and have been seen previously during the magma accumulation process.
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What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update May 21, 2024
Magma accumulation under Svartsengi remains stable
- About 17 million cubic meters of magma have been added to the magma chamber since March 16
- Increased probability of a new magma flow and another eruption in the coming days
- Most likely to erupt on the Sundhnúks crater series
- Eruption warning may be very short
About 200 earthquakes were recorded in the area around the magma corridor during the Whitsunday weekend, most of them below 1.0 in magnitude. This is similar to the seismic activity that has been recorded in recent days, but around 50 earthquakes have been recorded in a 24-hour period, most of them in the areas between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell on the one hand and south of Þorbjarna on the other.
Magma accumulation continues under Svartsengi and land is rising there at the same rate as before. At the moment, there is no reason to estimate other than that there is still a considerable probability of a new magma run and another eruption in the Sundhnúks crater series in the coming days.
The Sundhnúks crater series is still most likely to erupt
In the news last weekend, there was talk of small earthquake activity that has been ongoing for the past few weeks in the area south of Þorbjarna in the large sickle valley west of Grindavík. In the news, it was mentioned that there might be weaknesses in the earth's crust that magma could possibly use to reach the surface. Magma flowing from the magma chamber to the area south of Þorbjarna is considered an extremely unlikely scenario at this point. That assessment is based on new model calculations and other data that were discussed at a meeting of scientists this morning. This slow increase in seismic activity is probably a sign of tension release in and around the magma passage on the Sundhnúks crater series due to increased magma pressure in the magma chamber under Svartsengi.
There is still an overwhelming probability that there will be a repeat of magma flowing from the magma chamber at Svartsengi and into the Sundhnúks crater series.
Pay close attention to see if magma is on the move
The Norwegian Meteorological Agency has monitored pressure changes in HS Orku's boreholes in connection with monitoring the activity in Svartsengi. A sudden change in pressure has been one of the warnings that magma is running from Svartsengi to the Sundhnúks crater series. It has previously been stated that the signs of a new magma flow were local small earthquakes in and around the magma tunnel, acceleration in deformation together with pressure changes in boreholes in the area. This morning, a minor pressure drop was measured in HS Orku's borehole. No seismic activity or change in deformation was observed to accompany these measured pressure changes. Therefore, the Norwegian Meteorological Agency did not activate contingency plans for possible magma flow.
The graph shows the estimated amount of magma that has been added under Svartsengi between the eruptions or magma flows that have occurred since November 2023. The slight changes seen in the graph are within the margin of error and have been seen previously during the magma accumulation process.
What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update May 14, 2024
Land is rising in Svartsengi at the same speed as before
Seismic activity similar to the last few days
- Increased probability of a new magma flow and another eruption in the coming days
- Most likely to erupt on the Sundhnúks crater series
- Eruption warning may be very short
About 60 earthquakes have been recorded in the magma corridor in the last 24 hours. This is similar to the seismic activity that has been recorded in recent days, but around 50 to 80 earthquakes have been recorded in a 24-hour period, most of them in the areas between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell on the one hand and south of Þorbjarna on the other.
Magma accumulation continues under Svartsengi and land is rising there at the same rate as before. There is therefore an increased chance of a new magma run and another eruption in the Sundhnúks crater series in the coming days. Signs of a new magma flow would be the same as before, local small earthquakes in and around the magma tunnel, acceleration in deformation and pressure changes in boreholes in the area.
What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update May 13, 2024
Ground uplift continues in the Svartsengi area at a similar rate
- There is an increased likelihood of a new dike intrusion and another eruption in the coming days.
- The most likely location for a new eruption is the Sundhnúk crater row.
- Warning signs preceding an eruption could be very short.
Ground uplift continues in the Svartsengi area at the same rate as previously observed. Since March 16th, when the last volcanic eruption began, ground uplift has reached approximately 20 cm at the GNSS station in Svartsengi. Magma accumulation continues in the reservoir, and the likelihood of a new dike intrusion and a new eruption continues to increase.
In the previous dike intrusions and eruptions over the past several months, approximately 8 to 13 million cubic meters of magma were recharged to the reservoir beneath Svartsengi between events before the magma migrated to the surface towards the Sundhnúk crater row. Now, the volume of magma added since March 16th has exceeded the previously observed upper limit.
Seismic activity is relatively stable between days. In the last week, approximately 50 to 80 earthquakes were recorded per day, mostly occurring in the areas between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and south of Þorbjörn. Most of the earthquakes have magnitudes below 1.0, but isolated earthquakes with magnitudes close to 2.0 have been recorded. Signs of a new dike intrusion are expected to be similar to those previously observed, such as localized seismic activity in and around the dike, fast ground deformation, and pressure changes in nearby boreholes.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office continues its 24-hour surveillance of the area. New eruptive fissures could open in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell, and signs of magma migrating towards the surface would likely resemble the initial phases of other recent eruptions in the area. This could occur with little to no warning.
Disturbance in GNSS measurements due to the geomagnetic storm
Land uplift is calculated by measuring the change in the amount of time it takes for a signal to travel from satellites orbiting the earth to GNSS receivers on the ground. If the duration of time for the signal to travel between the satellite and the receiver decreases, it indicates that the land has risen.
Over the weekend, one of the most powerful geomagnetic storms in recent years occurred when solar winds from large sunspots on the Sun hit the Earth. The last geomagnetic storm of a similar magnitude occurred on October 30, 2003.
Strong solar winds send charged particles into the Earth's magnetic field, affecting signal transmissions between GNSS receivers on the ground and satellites. This interference affects the travel time of the signal, causing deformation measurements that could be interpreted as a slowdown in magma accumulation rate. However, this is not the case, as a new data point calculated this morning is at a "normal" location compared to previous measurements.
Disturbances due to geomagnetic storms do not affect the Icelandic Meteorological Office's ability to provide warnings of imminent dike intrusions or eruptions.
The graph shows the estimated volume of magma that has recharged beneath the Svartsengi area between the series of volcanic eruptions and dike intrusions that began in November 2023. Note that a geomagnetic storm over the weekend disturbed the measurements.
What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update May 10, 2024
There is an increased likelihood of a new dike intrusion and another eruption in the coming days.
- The most likely location for a new eruption is the Sundhnúk crater row.
- Warning signs preceding an eruption could be very brief.
- An updated hazard assessment map has been issued.
The trend of land rise at Svartsengi has remained relatively stable since the most recent volcanic eruption ended, with magma accumulation continuing at a similar rate. As of today, it is estimated that approximately 14 million cubic meters of magma has been added to the magma chamber since the eruption began on March 16th.
In the dike intrusions and eruptions over the past few months, approximately 8 to 13 million cubic meters of magma was added to the chamber beneath Svartsengi before it exited the chamber and travelled towards the Sundhnúk crater row. Now, the amount of magma added has surpassed the previously observed upper limit. Observations from the Krafla eruptions can add context to this behavior, revealing that, as more dike intrusions occur, more pressure is required to initiate them. Therefore, it is likely that the magma chamber beneath Svartsengi will eventually feed another intrusion into the Sundhnúk crater row. However, there is uncertainty about when sufficient pressure will be reached to initiate a new dike intrusion and potentially an eruption if magma reaches the surface.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office continues its 24-hour surveillance of the area to closely monitor the activity. New eruptive fissures could open in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and may resemble the initial phases of other recent eruptions in the area. This could happen with little to no warning. Signs of a new dike intrusion would be similar to those previously observed: localized earthquakes in and around the dike, accelerated deformation, and pressure changes in nearby boreholes.
Increased seismic activity has been recorded at the Sundhnúk crater row in recent days. This increase in seismic activity is likely a sign that stress is being released in and around the recent eruption site on the Sundhnúk crater row due to increased pressure in the magma chamber beneath Svartsengi.
Last night, the Icelandic Meteorological Office's 24-hour surveillance team detected an increase in localized seismic activity south of Stóra-Skógfell, in a similar location to where previous eruptions have started. Deformation and pressure measurements, which would indicate a dike intrusion, did not exhibit significant changes. The activity persisted for a relatively short duration, but it cannot be ruled out that a small amount of magma may have been injected there.
Caution when traveling near the Sundhnúk crater row
The Icelandic Meteorological Office has issued an updated hazard assessment. The termination of the last eruption has caused updates in several areas, but the current hazard assessment reflects increased chances of a new dike intrusion and possible eruption.
As the crust between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell is heavily fractured, magma is likely to find a clear path to the surface without significant resistance, and therefore, substantial seismic activity may not accompany magma migration through the crust. Therefore, warning times before a new eruption could be very brief or nonexistent, so it is important to exercise extreme caution when travelling to area 3, defined on the Icelandic Meteorological Office's hazard map. The new risk assessment is valid until May 14th, unless the situation changes.
Graph showing the estimated amount of magma that has accumulated beneath Svartsengi between the eruptions and dike intrusions that have occurred on Reykjanes since November 2023.
What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update May 7, 2024
Magma accumulation and landrise continue in Svartsengi
The eruption of the Sundhnúks crater series continues. Lava flows a short distance from the crater and the activity in the crater is decreasing. There has been little or no change in the southern part of the lava bed near the defenses to the east of Grindavikur in the last week.
Magma accumulation and landrise continue in Svartsengi. The speed has remained almost unchanged for the last few weeks (see picture below). These measurements indicate that pressure continues to build up in the magma chamber. There is still a possibility of a new magma flow from the magma chamber under Svartsengi to the Sundhnúks crater series.
Micro-seismic activity has steadily increased over the past week in the area in and around the magma tunnel. The earthquakes, the vast majority of which are less than 1 in size, have been north of the current crater, between Sundhnúk and Stóri Skógfell, south of Þorbjarna in the large sigdalen at Grindavík, and between Grindavík and the eruption stations. This slow increase in seismic activity is probably a sign of tension release in and around the magma passage on the Sundhnúks crater series due to increased magma pressure in the magma chamber under Svartsengi.
These two scenarios remain the most likely for the continuation of activity in the Sundhnúks crater series:
- New fissures open in the area between Stóra-Scógfell and Hagafell and/or an existing fissure expands due to a sudden increase in lava flow that could be comparable to the initial phase of the last eruption in the area. It could happen with very little or no notice.
- It is also possible that magma flow from the magma chamber under Svartsengi to the active crater on the Sundhnúks crater series will gradually increase until there is a balance between the inflow of magma into the magma chamber and the outflow from there to the surface.
Signs of a new magma flow would be, like before, very sudden series of small earthquakes in and around the magma tunnel, acceleration in deformation and pressure changes in boreholes in the area. It is important to point out that the notice can be very short, less than half an hour, or even none.
Risk assessment is unchanged from the last version. Last week, the danger due to lava flow in area 4 (Grindavík) was increased from considerable danger to high, which is based on the scenarios that are now considered the most likely.
It is difficult to predict the end of the chain of events that began at the end of October
As mentioned before, there is uncertainty about the progress of the earthquakes now that the eruption has lasted for more than a month at the same time that magma is gathering in the magma chamber under Svartsengi. Although the scenarios above are considered the most likely, it is still closely monitored whether the magma is looking elsewhere than over to the Sundhnúks crater series. We look at the areas north of Stóra-Scógfell and south of Hagafell and Þorbjarna.
If magma were to break its way to the surface outside of the areas that have already erupted, the warning of such earthquakes would be greater and would manifest itself in much more powerful and intense seismic activity than there has been in the run-up to the last eruptions.
What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update May 2, 2024
Land continues to rise in Svartsengi
The probability of a new magma run continues to increase
- Landris still measures up to Svartsengi. Pressure therefore continues to build up in the magma chamber.
- Lava flow from the erupting crater has been decreasing in recent days.
- Measurements and model calculations indicate that there is considerable uncertainty about the future. There is still an increased chance of a new magma run and that the power of the eruption on the Sundhnúks crater series will increase.
- There is a risk that the lava will cover defenses east of Grindavík if the force of the eruption increases again.
- Risk assessment is unchanged
Landris continues to measure at Svartsengi and the speed has remained unchanged for the last few weeks (see picture below). It was reported in the news earlier this week that there were indications that it had slowed down in the previous days. Measurements since then show that the speed has remained the same if you look at the last few weeks. Pressure continues to build up in the magma chamber and there is a possibility of a new magma flow from the magma chamber under Svartsengi to the Sundhnúks crater series.
Seismic activity has increased in the Sundhnúks crater series in the last few days. These are small earthquakes that are probably a sign of tension release in and around the magma passage on the Sundhnúks crater series due to increased magma pressure in the magma chamber under Svartsengi.
Lava flow from the crater is significantly less than it was three weeks ago. The lava flow as it is today is estimated to be very small, but it must be expected that the eruption will continue for some time despite this small lava flow.
In recent weeks, lava from the crater has piled up at the defense walls east of Grindavík. (L12 in the picture above). If the power of the eruption increases or new fissures open south of the current vent, the advance of the lava margin at the defense walls east of Grindavík must be assumed. On Saturday, April 27, a small lava tongue crossed a dike east of Grindavík. There is a risk that such cases will increase if the power of the eruption increases again.
These two scenarios remain the most likely for the continuation of activity in the Sundhnúks crater series:
- New fissures open in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and/or an existing fissure expands due to a sudden increase in lava flow that could be comparable to the initial phase of the last eruption in the area. It could happen with very little or no notice.
- It is also possible that magma flow from the magma chamber under Svartsengi to the active crater on the Sundhnúks crater series will gradually increase until there is a balance between the inflow of magma into the magma chamber and the outflow from there to the surface.
Signs of a new magma run would be, as before, extremely sudden and intense small earthquakes in and around the magma tunnel and subsidence in Svartsengi.
The attached map shows the changes in the thickness of the lava bed between April 15, 25 and April 30.
What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update Apr 30, 2024
Landrise is still compared to Svartsengi, but there are indications that it has slowed down
Pressure is building in the magma chamber. The total volume of magma under Svartsengi since March 16 is estimated at over 10 million cubic meters
- Landrise still measures up to Svartsengi, but there are indications that it has slowed down in the last few days.
- Despite the land subsidence, model calculations show that magma accumulation under Svartsengi continues at a similar rate as before. It indicates that pressure is increasing in the magma chamber.
- The total volume of magma under Svartsengi since March 16 is estimated at over 10 million cubic meters.
- In the last two weeks, the average flow of lava from the crater, which is still erupting, is about a third of the average flow in the first half of the month.
- Measurements and model calculations indicate that there is considerable uncertainty about the future, but it is likely that it will soon lead to news and the power of the eruption on the Sundhnúks crater series could increase.
- Risk assessment updated. The risk of lava flow has been increased, but the risk of eruption has decreased.
The eruption at Sundhnúk continues and lava flows to the south from the crater, just like recently. The southern part of the lava bed continues to thicken where lava flows in closed channels. On Saturday, April 27, a small lava tongue crossed a dike east of Grindavík. No more lava has crossed the dike since then.
The image measurement team of the National Institute of Natural Sciences (NÍ) and Landmæringi Íslands (LMÍ) has been processing satellite images and data since April 25. The area of the lava bed that has formed in the eruption is now 6.16 km 2 and is almost unchanged between measurements. However, the volume and thickness of the lava bed continues to increase and the volume is now 34 ± 1.9 million m 3 and the average thickness of the lava bed is 5.5 ± 0.3 m.
Based on these results, the estimated average lava flow in the eruption between April 15 and 25 is 0.9 ± 0.4 m 3 /s. In previous measurements of the average lava flow for the period from April 3 to 15, it was estimated at 3 to 4 m 3 /s.
Landrise still measures up to Svartsengi, but there are indications that it has slowed down in the last few days. At the same time, eruptive turbulence has shown a slight increase and microseismic activity has temporarily increased in the Sundhnúks crater series, although there are indications that the land giant is slowing down, model calculations show that magma accumulation under Svartsengi continues at a similar rate as before. The total volume of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi since the eruption began is estimated at over 10 million cubic meters. The fact that the land giant is slowing but that magma continues to flow into the magma chamber indicates that pressure is building there.
Measurements and model calculations indicate that there is considerable uncertainty about the future, but it is likely that it will soon make headlines. If magma accumulation continues, it is more likely that the power of the Sundhnúks crater series will increase significantly rather than that it will subside. Based on the latest measurements, however, it is difficult to say which of the scenarios below is more likely
New fissures open in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and/or an existing fissure expands due to a sudden increase in lava flow that could be comparable to the initial phase of the last volcanic eruption in the area. It could happen with very little or no notice.
It is also possible that magma flow from the magma chamber under Svartsengi to the active crater on the Sundhnúks crater series will gradually increase until there is a balance between the inflow of magma into the magma chamber and the outflow from there to the surface.
Gas diffusion prediction
Today's weather forecast is for a northerly direction (Tuesday) and gas pollution is moving to the south and there could be pollution in and near Grindavík. Lows tonight and then pollution could accumulate near the eruption sites. Turns to the west tomorrow (Wednesday) and southwest in the afternoon. Gas pollution travels to the east at first and could occur at the South coast, but later to the north and northeast and pollution could occur in the Höfúðborg area, Vogur and the Vatnsleysu coast.
Risk assessment updated
At the Norwegian Meteorological Agency's scientific meeting this morning, the risk assessment was reviewed. The changes are in the risk assessment that the risk due to pyroclastics has been reduced from a considerable risk to low in areas 1 and 6. This change is made because there has not been much pyroclastic release into the atmosphere. The risk in area 4 (Grindavík) has been increased from moderate to high due to lava flow, as the lava tongue has been expanding, albeit slowly, within the area in recent days. This means that the overall risk in zone 4 goes from considerable (orange) to high (red). In addition, there is an increased probability that it will soon lead to news in the area around Sundhnúki, and it is estimated that it is more likely than before that lava can flow quickly to the south.
What's Happening in Iceland?
IMO Update Apr 26, 2024
Magma accumulation under Svartsengi since March 16 approaches 10 million m3
Gas is still measured in the area and is clearly visible on a satellite image
The eruption at Sundhnúk continues and, like since April 5, one crater, a short distance east of Sundhnúk, is active. Lava flows a short distance to the south from the crater in an open lava river, but further in closed channels. The part of the lava bed near the defenses to the east of Grindavík continues to thicken slowly.
Landris in Svartsengi continues at the same rate as models predict that the amount of magma added to the magma chamber in Svartsengi since the eruption began on March 16 is now approaching 10 million m 3 as the graph below shows. In previous events, magma has flowed from Svartsengi when between 8 and 13 million m3 have been added to the magma chamber since the last magma flow.
The graph shows the estimated amount of magma that has been added under Svartsengi between the eruptions or magma flows that have occurred since November 2023.
If magma accumulation continues at a similar rate, there is a greater chance that the power of the eruption on the Sundhnúks crater series will increase significantly.
New fissures open in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and/or the existing fissure expands due to a sudden increase in lava flow that could be comparable to the initial phase of the last volcanic eruption in the area. It could happen with very little or no notice.
It is also possible that magma flow from the magma chamber under Svartsengi to the Sundhnúks crater series will gradually increase until there is a balance between the inflow of magma into the magma chamber and the outflow from there to the surface.
It is also possible that there will be a magma run that ends with new fissures opening elsewhere than in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell. This scenario is considered less likely than the others and would be accompanied by considerable seismic activity and deformation with more advance notice than previous eruptions
On Wednesday, April 24, experts from the Norwegian Meteorological Agency carried out measurements of gas emissions from the eruption. It is estimated at 6-9 kg/s of SO 2 , but in the last measurement made two weeks ago, on April 12, the gas emission was estimated at 10-18 kg/s. There is no evidence that it is drawing gas emissions from the eruption. While the eruption continues, the flow of SO 2 can vary greatly from day to day (as the eruptions at Fagradalsfjall showed). There is still a risk of gas pollution in the area around the crater as well as in settlements on the Reykjanes peninsula, and we advise people in the area to monitor the air quality and learn about the reaction to air pollution from the volcanic eruption.
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