The reason for the crazy crypto sell off seems to be Jump Trading, who are either getting margin called in the traditional markets and need liquidity over the weekend, or they are exiting the crypto business due to regulatory reasons (Terra Luna related). The sell-off is relentless atm.
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Amazing crypto and investor weekend in Munich. We spoke about the current crypto markets, the stock markets, Cake's last 8 months and the upcoming 3 months, and my upcoming book launch. Will be in Italy for two days and then back in Germany for the book publisher.
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đ¨Alertđ¨
The great #Bitcoin tug-of-war is upon us! It seems like the crypto world is divided into two warring factions: Team Pro-Short and Team ETF Flows. But guess what? It's not all doom and gloom or euphoria. It's just the magic of Cash and Carry!
Let me break it down for you: funds are engaging in a clever arbitrage scheme, exploiting the price difference between spot and futures markets to generate some "risk-free" returns. They're like the cool kids in school who found a way to game the system without getting caught.
The funds are "delta neutral," meaning they're not emotionally attached to Bitcoin's price movements. They're just chilling, waiting for the premium to collapse like a soufflĂŠ in a gorilla cage.
So, the next time you see these graphs being used as ammunition in the crypto wars, remember that they're not telling the whole story. These charts are just a sign of the asset class maturing, and that's a good thing!
In the end, we're all just passengers on the Bitcoin roller coaster, holding on for dear life and hoping we don't get motion sickness. đđ #CashAndCarry #BitcoinArbitrage
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Day 10 Pep Talk for the Team!
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Happy Day 7!!
Todayâs message is a bit late, but it was quite a busy and productive day.
Had a podcast interview with Blockhead sharing a bit of the past 8 months and the upcoming 90 days! Should come out by Thursday. Will be good! Quite excited.
We are now one week in to the 90 days, and it is now time to really get concrete about the launch dates of the various things we have planned.
We will share some details internally first tomorrow during the Pulse. Then publicly. So, be sure you follow me here!!
Today, I want to put a reminder on our avatar "Tom", who we are building all this for.
A good avatar goes 5 levels deep. What we did for Bake is the following:
1. Interested in Crypto mainly for diversifying to get ahead financially (of course)
2. Male & Crypto (I know, gender and stuff, but we gotta target someone!)
3. Male & Crypto & 30s/40s (the age group is super relevant for experience, time management, etc.)
4. Male & Crypto & 30s/40s & in family planning (marrying, kids)
5. Male & Crypto & 30s/40s & family planning & in Europe and South East Asia
Would be interested to see, if you are reading this and part of this group above.
If you are not and you are not on trigger alarm, the above obviously does NOT mean that we do not want anyone else on the platform, actually the opposite!!
But we need to have some idea who we are targeting in the first place and where to start from. If we try to speak to everyone, we will reach no one!!
I believe, the easy on-ramp, attractive bundles and great yield, combined with good UX will do wonders.
Looking forward!
LFG!
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Guten Morgen! Heute ist Tag 6 unseres 90-Comeback-Gameplans und heute ist der Tag des Minimal Viable Product (MVP)!
Das Team wird sich in dieser Woche darauf konzentrieren, die genauen Launch-Termine fĂźr die Produkt- und Marketing-Kampagnen in den 90 Tagen festzulegen.
Auf der Produktseite wird es eine Kombination aus On-Ramp, Bundles, Yield-Generation, New Coins und vielem mehr geben.
Auf der Marketingseite werden wir uns darauf konzentrieren, alte Kunden zu reaktivieren und mit verschiedenen Kampagnen Anreize fĂźr neue Kunden zu schaffen.
Auf beiden Seiten geht es darum, das Minimal Viable Product (MVP) zu verstehen. Intern nennen wir es auch das âSkateboard-Konzeptâ, weil wir nicht versuchen, nur eine perfekte Version von etwas Kleinem zu launchen, sondern ein BĂźndel von entscheidenden Dingen als Paket.
Zwei groĂartige Beispiele, die wir alle kennen, sind Amazon und AirBnb. Jeff Bezos grĂźndete den Marktplatz Anfang der 1990er Jahre als Online-Buchladen. Die Website war ein Ein-Painkiller-MVP. Bezos begann, eine Liste mit Ideen zu erstellen, die er erfolgreich im Internet verkaufen kĂśnnte. Von 20 verschiedenen Optionen entschied er sich fĂźr fĂźnf Produkte, darunter Videos, BĂźcher, Software, Computer und sogar CDs.
Airbnb begann mit einer Luftmatratze, einem Bett und einem Frßhstßck. Im Jahr 2007 kämpften die beiden Produktdesigner Brian Chesky und Joe Gebbia damit, eine Wohnung in San Francisco zu bezahlen und zusätzlichen Platz zu mieten. Sie lancierten ein Minimum Viable Product einer Room-Exchange-Plattform mit ihrem eigenen Haus.
Bei uns in der Firma mßssen wir das Gleiche tun. Wir mßssen Wege finden, den Launch schlank zu gestalten - sowohl beim Produkt als auch beim Marketing. Sobald wir sehen, dass es gut läuft, legen wir noch einen drauf.
Viele Teams versuchen, perfekte Produkte zu launchen oder sind viel zu voreilig - die Kunst besteht darin, die richtige Balance zu finden.
In den nächsten Tagen werde ich dir ein paar konkrete Beispiele dafßr geben, wie wir das mit der Fiat Onramp, den Smart Bundles und anderen Produkten erreichen wollen.
Danke, dass du uns auf dieser Reise begleitest.
Lasst uns jeden Tag zu etwas Besonderem machen!
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Good Morning! It's Day 6 of our 90 Comeback Gameplan and today is Minimal Viable Product (MVP) Day!
The team will focus this week on pencilling down the exact launch dates for product and marketing-campaigns for the 90 days.
On the product side it will be a combo of On-Ramp, Bundles, Yield-Generation, New Coins and much more.
On the marketing side we will focus on reactivating old customers and incentivizing new customers via various campaigns.
On both sides, the key is to understand the Minimal Viable Product (MVP). Internally we have come to also call it the âskateboard conceptâ because we donât try to just launch a perfect version of something small, but rather a slither of crucial things as a package.
Two great examples we all know are Amazon and AirBnb. Jeff Bezos started the marketplace in the early 1990s as an online bookstore. The website was a one-painkiller MVP. Bezos began brainstorming a list of ideas that he could sell successfully on the internet. From 20 different options, he went down to five products, which included videos, books, software, computers, and even CDs.
Airbnb began with an air mattress, bed, and breakfast. In 2007 two product designers Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia struggled to pay for an apartment in San Francisco and rent extra space. They launched a minimum viable product of a room-exchanging platform with their own house.
With Bake, we have to do the same. We have to find ways to launch lean - on both product and marketing.Obviously, hitting the right âleanâ is the tricky part. Once we see a strong pickup, we double down.
Many teams try to launch perfect products or are way to hasty - the trick is to find the right balance.
In the coming days I will give you some concrete examples on how we are trying to achieve that with the fiat onramp, smart bundles and others.
Thank you for being with us on this journey.
Letâs make every day count!
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Welcome to Day 4 of our Comeback 90 Day Game Plan at Bake! Happy Saturday. Yesterday, during a brief all-hands I aligned the team on product market fit. I reminded everyone of a concept I learned from Jeff Bezos, who asked himself, which 3 things people would always want from an online store (cheap, fast, variety) and he built Amazon around that.
So, for Bake, I reminded everyone of our 3 core product principles, which we have had since 2019:
Ease of Use -> We had that in 2019, 2020 and still in 2021⌠but it totally disappeared after that⌠now we are getting it back!
Transparency -> Sometimes, this came at a cost, but it ensured that we didnât die in 2022 like so many others!
Attractive Returns -> Thatâs what we mainly lost after 2022⌠and we MUST get it back!
We had a great product-, engineering- and UX-meeting yesterday evening aroudn that. Lots of ideas that can get us there. Canât wait to share next week.
Letâs have a great day.
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Good Morning and Welcome to Day 3!!
First and Foremost: Gosh, I love the new energy. Our internal Bake calls are buzzing. Meetings are energetic. Slack is active again.
Thatâs the spirit. Letâs keep that going. The community is full on with us on the ride!
Today, I want to briefly touch on something I mentioned during townhall on Wednesday already:
PRODUCT MARKET FIT (PMF)
WHY?
It is the absolute crucial first step, any startup needs to get to! Without PMF, there is no business - it will stay a hobby!
WHAT IS PMF?
I believe Sam Altman was the one back when he was leading YC, who defined PMF as âThe moment when a startup offers a service or product with a positive net promotor score, where it requires zero active marketing to get someone so excited about your offering, that this person is not only willing to pay for the product/service, but will also tell others about it.â startupclass.samaltman.com/courses/lec07/
In case you donât know what NPS is, here: www.hotjar.com/net-promoter-score/
HOW DOES @bake_io GET TO PMF?
I believe Cake had PMF in 2019, 2020 and 2021 with Cashflow on Crypto.
I believe no crypto company had it in 2022 - simply because of Crypto.
I believe we were on track to get it again 2023, but the winding up application totally destroyed our plans, since almost 90% of our active customers left us (understandably) due to the uncertainty.
This caused us to not only totally miss the bull run from Q4 2023 til Q1 2024, but actually set us back further than ever before.
Now, we need to find PMF again. We have 90 days to do so and before I share my thoughts with you what I think our PMF is, let me ask YOU this question âWhat service/product should Cake offer, that you would not only use yourself, but would also share with friends and family?â
Looking at our potential PMF, that is also quite unique in the market, âcustomizable and auto-rebalancing Smart Bundlesâ come to mind for me support.bake.io/en/articles/8702314-smart-bundle-fâŚ
-Bundles leverage Influencer Portfolios, Memecoin Trends, New Narratives, etc.
-They allow for a very easy access into the crypto space.
-They make it easy to get exposure to a wide arrange of coins.
-They follow our 3 product features of âsimple, attractive, transparentâ
-They allow for cashflow on top additionally
-With our additional on-ramps and soon off-ramps, the offer end-to-end crypto experiences
-They allow for following influencers
-They allow for âset it and forget itâ
-They make it easy to follow the latest trends
-They follow the straight forward principles of buy and hold
-They provide a win-win for customers and Cake with transactions fees, speed, access, ease of use
-Bundles combine everything we have: on-ramp, exchange, cashflow, soon off-ramp and maybe even trading bots
-Cake can charge fees on transactions, on profits, etc. as the customer is benefitting
Excited to hear your thoughts.
LFG - Day 3!
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Intense Week behind and Excitement ahead:
Last week was a whirlwind, as you surely have noticed. Nevertheless, let's focus on the action in the markets: We saw most of crypto rise and an interesting scenario in the stock market where, despite the overall indices being up, most individual stocks actually declining. The plot twist was the unemployment numbers released on Friday. They were better than expected, which, in my view, led to the stock sell-off.
As we move into this week, we're entering the final phase of significant economic data for the year. After this week, it's the week before Christmas and then the last week of the year â traditionally quieter times in the markets.
In the crypto world, the focus remains heavily on the potential for an ETF, with some investment flowing into trending areas like AI coins. It's a mix of hope and speculation at this stage, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bit of a breather and some softness.
On Tuesday, all eyes will be on the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is expected to show a drop from 3.2% to 3%, aligning with the trend of slowing price increases we've been seeing. This could give us further insights into the direction of inflation.
Another key event this week is the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The federal funds interest rate currently stands at 5.25% to 5.5%, and the consensus is that it'll remain unchanged. However, the main focus will be on the Fed's expectations going forward. There's some speculation about interest rate cuts as early as Q1, but I believe this will only happen if we start seeing signs of a hard landing. This tough reality may lead to further stock sell-offs this week.
As for my personal strategy in this climate, I'm using the recent sell-off in cryptos as an opportunity to buy more. I see potential amidst the volatility.
It's shaping up to be another intriguing week in the markets. What are your thoughts on these developments? Looking forward to hearing your perspectives.
Julian
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My name is Dr. Julian Hosp or just Julian. My videos are about business, finance and peak performance.
I'm talking about how you can invest wisely and do it rationally and simply. Also, I talk about startups and how to be in peak performance. Have fun!