notabigshortguy.substack.com/p/dollar-dominance
Here's the thing about dominance: it feels unbeatable—right until it's not. Rome believed in eternal superiority until Visigoths strolled through the gates. The British Empire was invincible until tea-drinking revolutionaries with poor dental hygiene spoiled the party. Today, Uncle Sam enjoys a similar delusion with the almighty U.S. dollar, a currency so robust that it's treated like oxygen—unquestioned, abundant, and essential. But what if we're all inhaling a bit too deeply?
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Financial Markets in Flux: AI Disruption, Housing Shifts, and the Trump Effect
📉 Market Recap: Volatility, AI Shockwaves, and Policy Moves
The financial markets have been anything but predictable lately. From AI disruptions shaking up big tech to Trump’s aggressive policy shifts, investors are navigating one of the most complex environments in years.
🔹 Nvidia lost $600B in market cap after DeepSeek’s open-source AI model shocked the industry. The AI race is no longer just a U.S. game—China is catching up fast.
🔹 Trump’s policies on downsizing government, immigration, and trade could reshape entire industries. The federal employee buyout plan may have broader economic impacts.
📊 Emerging Trends: AI Commoditization & Market Shifts
✅ AI’s Shift from Scarcity to Ubiquity – AI models are becoming cheaper and more accessible, raising the question: Will AI follow the path of airline deregulation, where innovation drives down margins? The winners might not be AI companies but those who integrate AI best (logistics, e-commerce, healthcare).
✅ The Next Big Contrarian Trade: Emerging Markets & Hard Assets – U.S. stocks, especially AI-driven mega caps, are stretched. Hedge funds are eyeing undervalued Chinese tech stocks (e.g., Alibaba) and gold as a hedge against monetary debasement.
✅ The Housing Paradox: Builders vs. Affordability – High mortgage rates haven't stopped homebuilders from gaining momentum. Trump’s focus on deregulation could fuel new opportunities, but affordability remains a concern.
📈 Where Are the Opportunities?
🔹 AI-Enabled Industries Over AI Itself – Retail, logistics, and pharma could benefit from AI integration.
🔹 Emerging Markets & Commodities – Potential dollar weakening could shift capital into undervalued assets.
🔹 Selective Tech Bets – Meta’s AI strategy looks promising, while Tesla’s valuation remains questionable.
🔹 Housing & Infrastructure – Homebuilders may benefit from new policies despite affordability challenges.
⏳ Final Take: A Market at an Inflection Point
The AI landscape is shifting fast, and Trump’s policies are creating new risks and opportunities. The next few months will determine whether AI remains a cash cow for big tech or becomes a widely available commodity that reshapes entire industries.
👉 What’s your take? Where do you see the biggest opportunities? Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
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From one session VWAP to another.
Upper yellow - today's session VWAP
Lower yellow - yesterday's session VWAP
Cyan - PPI release VWAP
Red - Low-of-year VWAP
It's amazing how simply plotting anchored VWAPs on significant levels and sessions can give a trader a hyper-relevant roadmap as price moves.
#ES_F #daytrading #technicalanalysis #VWAP
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And there it is— $ES_F breach of opening range high (ORH) after a near-perfect 3-bar setup (yellow-black-yellow). There's a decent chance this move runs to yesterday's cash session #VWAP
Gym break. Back for #fomcminutes at 13:00 CST.
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26 November 2024