The global economy is slowing in 2025 amid rising policy uncertainty and US tariffs. Global GDP growth is forecast to ease to 2.3%, with implications across insurance markets.
🔹 Premium outlook: We project 2% real growth in global insurance premiums (life and non-life) in 2025, down from 5.2% in 2024. A slight rebound to 2.3% is expected in 2026.
🔹 Non-life: Premium growth is decelerating and rates are softening, but higher reinvestment yields are supporting profitability. We forecast ROE to reach 9.7% from 2025.
🔹 Life: Growth slows to 1% this year, but the profitability outlook remains solid, supported by strong saving demand and improving investment returns.
🔹 Risks of fragmentation: Tariff-driven pressures are most acute in the US, but long-term risks from geopolitical and market fragmentation could reduce insurability and widen protection gaps globally.
📢 Explore these themes in our latest World Insurance sigma - out now ow.ly/XQs950WmzVW
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💡Stay ahead of the curve with our latest SONAR 2025 report on new threats affecting insurers. This year's report highlights eight emerging risks, ranging from extreme heat effects and adapting fungi to ultra-processed foods and expanding drone technology, and five structural risks, including how declining consumer trust, ageing societies, and excess mortality, are reshaping the risk landscape.
Discover more 🔗 ow.ly/icR750W7Imu
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Swiss Re helps insurers and direct clients shoulder risks through re/insurance and other solutions. Risk is our raw material. What we create is opportunity.
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29 July 2011