Welcoem to posts!!
in the future - u will be able to do some more stuff here,,,!! like pat catgirl- i mean um yeah... for now u can only see others's posts :c
Happy Thanksgiving to all! I have family in town and will be taking the week off.
10 - 3
Also, I just read the language in several UAP disclosure bills and amendments to bills that are currently in consideration by the House and Senate. I can't believe I am saying this publicly but it might be time to create another investment risk category. UAP DISCLOSURE RISK! I have no idea what using imminent domain to seize any of the supposed recovered non-human technologies would do to the stock prices of major aerospace and technology companies, if such things exist. But, I can bet that it would not be positive.
6 - 0
Inflation numbers keep moving in the right direction and the bond market appears to be pricing in a 50 BPS slide in rates by mid 2024. These are good signs for stocks. Yield and Yield spreads on the 10 year Treasury have been concerning lately.
8 - 0
PLUG drops like a rock on news that they may run out of money next year! This is a video I did three years ago about Plug Power. The prediction wasn't wizardry it was just seeing past the hysteria. There is a lot of AI hysteria right now that is going to result in broken hearts in a couple of years. https://youtu.be/HyoUw0bmm6M
6 - 0
Just like the Nuclear Doomsday Clock I have a Bankruptcy Doomsday Clock for Lucid and Rivian. Lucid is still 90 seconds to midnight (but backed by Saudi interests). To my surprise I think Rivian deserves a lot more time on that clock. Rivian expects to manufacture 54,000 vehicles this year, six times the number Lucid anticipates. They have started to scale production and there seems to be plenty of demand for their products. They still have to navigate the minefield of financing expansion over the next few years which will not be anywhere near as easy or cheap as it was for Tesla. But the outlook, while not rosy, is a lot brighter for Rivian than it was a year ago.
12 - 3
This chart spells trouble for the stock market in the near term. Not because of lower corporate earnings but because after nearly 15 years there is finally somewhere else to look for yield and it is a lot lower risk than stocks. A lot of folks who are looking to reduce risk as they approach retirement now have another option. Expect massive fund flows to bonds over the next year or so. Higher for longer doesn't just mean that that capital cost will be higher. It also means reallocation of investor portfolio across most of the investing world.
7 - 1
Yield on the 10 year treasury has dropped by almost 30 bps since Monday. This represents a pretty big shift in sentiment. It looks like we may see a year end rally after all.
8 - 2
Since April of 2022 the Fed has shrunk its balance sheet from $8.97 to $7.91. A little bit more than a trillion dollars. Its a start and if WE THE PEOPLE of the USA can keep interest rates normalized without crashing the economy that good work might continue until it no longer looks like insane people run the monetary system.
11 - 1
A prime example of how a strong dollar affects international trade is Toyota. A weak yen and strong demand for hybrids resulted in the company nearly doubling their Q3 profits over the prior quarter. The strong dollar means their products are cheaper in the US.
8 - 0
China's biggest property developer Country Garden defaulted on bond payments this week. A healthy dose of caution with any Chinese stock is warranted. This is big enough to have ripple effects throughout the entire economy. Some sort of large action to back stop this company by the central government is likely coming.
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