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7,705,801 Views • Jan 5, 2015 • Click to toggle off description
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Psychological literature shows that we are more sensitive to small losses and than small gains, with most people valuing a loss around 1.5-2.5 times as much as a gain. This means that we often turn down reasonable opportunities for fear of the loss. However over the course of our lives we will be exposed to many risks and opportunities and this invariably means that taking every small reasonable bet will leave us better off than saying no to all of them.
NOTE: The video is not saying to accept every bet, only those with reasonable odds (preferably in your favour), and those which if you lose would not cause significant financial or other damage. In those cases it is wise to be loss averse!
Filmed by Adrian Tan
Thanks to Physics Girl for suggestions on previous versions of this video. youtube.com/physicswoman
Views : 7,705,801
Genre: Education
Date of upload: Jan 5, 2015 ^^
Rating : 4.962 (3,422/359,563 LTDR)
RYD date created : 2022-04-09T18:51:27.147498Z
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YouTube Comments - 17,310 Comments
Top Comments of this video!! :3
i'd say let me flip the coin... then just run of with it. INSTANT PROFIT
5.3K |
As a former poker player I saw the 12 bucks for 10 bucks bet as an absolute win, and repeating it multiple times is just heaven then
172 |
“This video will only make money if half a million people see it” - Gets 7 million views and counting. I guess in this case, everyone is a winner ❤
44 |
Nobody wants to make a bet on a coin toss from a physicist.
5.2K |
Just run away if you lose, giving you a 100% chance of not losing 10 dollars.
8.7K |
I was shocked to see that no one took the bet easily.. because my father played this game with me various times and in that i was ready to lose my money(although i don't have much money).. but he wanted us to learn to take small risks.. from there I learned not to think about small losses much and it'd helped me in taking some decisions quite easily..and plus i feel more confident sometimes iykyk;)
251 |
I am a paralegal and I do criminal law. We have clients with cases that are easily winnable but they opt for the sure conviction with a plea bargain rather than taking the risk and getting an acquittal. I have never been able to understand the mentality, until now.
22 |
If a stranger would offer me this bet, I would immediately assume it's probably a scam. Am I the only one?
27K |
For those who are wondering, I convinced my interviewees that the bet was not a scam: they could inspect the coin, flip it themselves, use their own coin etc. I explained that the experiment was intended to explore their approach to risk. It was fear of losing $10, not distrust, that led them to decline the bet.
5.7K |
its been 9 years and i still love your old vids as much as the new ones!
you are like a role model for me and i love evrything you do pls never stop :D
2 |
I think it's not only about feeling about gains and losses, but also about what the relationship is of the money against your overal budget. I wouldn't take the bet if I only own 10 dollars, but easily accept it if I had 1000. Also, I wouldn't probably accept a bet of a random stranger because you probably have something fishy to do: no one gives away free money.
54 |
imagine being the guy who took the bet and won $10 and then you see the video and realise someone else got $20 out of it just because they were more sceptical
1.3K |
"Only gonna make me money if like half a million people watch it"
sees the "5,180,815 views" count*
huh, he made profit I guess
2.4K |
Not sure exactly how or why I ended up back at this old video but I'll tell ya...it's the message I needed today!
3 |
I'm so glad that there are people like you who spread the knowledge instead of dancing in front of a camera for attention. Keep up the good work mate. 👍
49 |
A little extra math for anyone interested.
The long term expected value was hinted on in the video by saying that over 100 bets, you expect to win $500, with a 1/2300 chance of losing money. To explain this better you have to understand the relationship between expected value and variance (or standard deviations).
In his 10 vs 20 bets, the player's expected value is +$5 per bet. The standard deviation of each bet is $15, that is to say the player's expectation is $5 +/- $15.
Now, in the long term, expectations are linearly proportional whereas the standard deviations are proportional to the square root of the number of trials.
So for 100 bets, the player's expectation is +100*$5 (+$500). The standard deviation is sqrt(100)*$15, or $150.
One standard deviation away from the mean encompasses roughly 2/3 of all possible outcomes. Therefore the player after 100 bets, has a 2/3 chance of being up between $350 and $650.
Apply that math even farther, say 1,000,000 bets.
Expectation = $5,000,000
Standard Deviation = sqrt(1,000,000)*$15 = $15,000.
As the sample size grows, the standard deviation becomes a smaller and smaller proportion of the expected value.
This is the math that card counters, casinos, and even stock brokers rely on to make money.
1.3K |
I wouldn't accept the $12 bet...
But only to get him to increase the odds
1.1K |
I still share this video all the time. Thank you for being you. Thanks for inspiring my own YouTube channel. You're amazing and thank you again. Cheers good person :)
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Just popped up on my homepage, 8 years later, given the number of views, I'd say it paid off :)
Great content, as usual!
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@Mewws
4 years ago
"i need half a million views" 4.2 Million views later
4.6K |