Views : 206,547
Genre: News & Politics
Date of upload: Feb 17, 2024 ^^
Rating : 4.954 (67/5,822 LTDR)
RYD date created : 2024-05-16T10:22:39.469969Z
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Top Comments of this video!! :3
bristol resident here! kingswood is a really interesting constituency as it’s incredibly suburban and could indicate mood across a lot of outer city suburbs. most of the coverage hasn’t highlighted the fact that kingswood is effectively an outer suburb of bristol. the fact it’s in south glos is very much a technicality of brown belt development, and there’s no dividing line between bristol and south glos (pictures of the border cutting between random streets in bristol are quite comical). lots of the country is made up of people who live in outer suburbs and commuter towns for large urban centres. the urban centres overwhelmingly go labour, but if labour are also catching the outer suburbs (which often are more likely to swing), this is very interesting and indicative of the polling that indicates a tory wipeout.
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while reforms vote share looks impressively close to their national polling, you have to take into consideration that national polls average out across all constituencies. So there will be some places where no one votes reform, some places where lots of people vote reform, and the average ends up around 10%. That means that in leave voting, rural, traditionally conservative, low diversity areas you would expect reform to achieve vote shares well above 10%, in the region of 15%+, just as in diverse remain voting inner cities you'd expect them to get votes in the low single digit percents. So the fact they only got around their national average in by elections in comfortable seats for them doesn't actually suggest they are doing all that well. If in the general election they get 13% of the vote share in all leave voting areas, and they get close to nothing in the other half of the country, their national vote share will not reach 10%
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@bobbyb373
3 months ago
Incredible results for Labour and abysmal ones for the Tories. Rishi’s recession is hurting a lot of voters and they’re tired of 14 years of Tory failures in government
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