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Four Ways of Thinking: Statistical, Interactive, Chaotic and Complex - David Sumpter
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312,686 Views • Premiered Oct 4, 2023 • Click to toggle off description
Mathematics is about finding better ways of reasoning. But for many applied mathematicians, the primary mission is to shape their minds in a way that gets them closer to the truth. The calculations are secondary, the real question is: how we can better understand the world around us?

In this Oxford Mathematics Public Lecture, David takes us on a journey through applied mathematics from statistics all the way to complexity theory, lifting examples from his work with football clubs - signing the best players (statistical thinking) or organising an attack (complex thinking) - and from every day life - bickering less with our partners (interactive thinking) and learning to let go (chaotic thinking). David reimagines applied mathematics as a set of tools for life, from big work decisions to how we treat our friends, family and work colleagues. No problem is too big or too small for a mathematical solution.

Professor David Sumpter is author of five books including Soccermatics (2016), Outnumbered (2018) and Four Ways of Thinking (2023). His research covers everything from the inner workings of fish schools and ant colonies, through social psychology and segregation in society, to machine learning and artificial intelligence.
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Views : 312,686
Genre: Education
Date of upload: Premiered Oct 4, 2023 ^^


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YouTube Comments - 288 Comments

Top Comments of this video!! :3

@ChronicleContent

6 months ago

Timestamps: 0:00:02 - Introduction to talk on applied mathematics and thinking styles. 0:03:03 - Ronald Fisher's life and work at Cambridge University. 0:05:57 - Testing if milk affects tea taste with experiments. 0:08:42 - Designing experiments using combinatorics. 0:11:31 - Gary Neville statistic measures player performance after conceding a goal. 0:14:17 - Statistics used to rank top players, limitations of measurement. 0:17:00 - Explaining the limitations of statistics in 10 words. 0:19:46 - Eugenics, smoking, and misuse of statistics. 0:22:25 - Context matters in statistical significance and causation. 0:25:13 - Balanced chemical reactions and ecological models explained with math. 0:27:46 - Mathematical modeling of foxes and rabbits. 0:30:32 - Analysis of applause and social recovery in groups. 0:33:12 - Human behavior equation: non-smiling person + 2 smiley people = 3 smiley people. 0:35:55 - Using physics-based models to scout football players. 0:38:51 - Introduction to chaos theory and Margaret Hamilton. 0:41:29 - Weather simulation error due to decimal input mistake. 0:44:05 - Generating divergent numbers through a simple process. 0:47:06 - Chaos, Margaret Hamilton, and the importance of control. 0:49:55 - Finding balance between order and chaos in life. 0:52:33 - Simple rules create complex patterns in simulations. 0:55:21 - Capturing complexity in science through detailed descriptions. Follow me for more AI

150 |

@jamil.12

1 month ago

Exactly the reason why i chosed to study mathematics and physics that is to understand the world around me.And i love studying these two subjects.When i study these two subjects properly i get totally involved,you can say i live in those moments fully.

118 |

@mightytitan1719

1 month ago

i love this youtube algorithm which recommends random great video just like a random variable

203 |

@AlexanderPetersonml

1 month ago

The smoking bit reminds me of a silly anecdote when Bertrand Russell was asked if he was concerned about smoking impacting his health. He said that one time he was going on a flight, and they told him he couldn't smoke on the airplane, so he decided to delay his trip rather than go without smoking for a few hours, and the plane ended up crashing.

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@CuriouslyBored

2 weeks ago

My statistical way of thinking: of a mindset care for probabilities, historical data, an assessment of assets and liabilities before pursuits of actualization occurs. My interactive way of thinking: of a mindset care that awaits or hunts for societal circumstances that appears to 'door' or facilitate pursuits of actualization. My chaotic way of thinking: of a mindset care for rolling the dice-- a 'just do it' actualization pursuit that minds no statistical odds or favorable circumstances and may even lack certainty of what actualization looks like. It is a pleasant surprise when no sense of chaos follows an unstudied action. My complex way of thinking: of a mindset that utilizes statistical and interactive cognitive intelligence to facilitate pursuits of actualization. I do believe success is most likely when complex thinking is applied. Additionally, the way of thinking determines what the mind is inclined to focus upon; what we focus upon occurs within mindsets. If I am of a Will to think in a manner that invites the possibility of chaos, there would be no consideration of mindsets associated with statistical or interactive thinking. Often, it is the actualization objective and not the Will that dictates the mind's cognitive cascade options-- care of success demands management of one's Will, usually. There is a control 'care' in mathematical logic; through an understanding or a care of the answer, one controls the problem. The lecture's turn towards discerned marital controls that are implemented and sustained, if "care" exists, is of complex thinking that minds objective (statistical) and subjective (interactive) truths. The identified existential marital problem has a determined answer that is not natural within our lecturer-- conscious, willful "control" of his natural inclinations is the answer that he believes "care" will sustain. If a strong "care" becomes weakly felt, the answer and the "manipulations required" will feel a key to a prison versus a key to greater marital happiness; sustaining a marital reality that survives upon an unnatural answer, of little care, is difficult-- even grit requires passion to exist in its application. Addendum: What is in grit? A Will to persevere, despite any headwinds of statistical and/or interactive inform. What does perseverance require? A deeply held belief that a pursuit will see actualized success. What is in belief? A measured patience that is governed by an adjustable long view. When the long view dies, all that underpins grit dies; grit may require an ability to visualize and intensely feel an anticipated actualization of victory. What a grit-gifted victorious actualization satisfies is dependent upon the state of one's ego and other psychological influences; a satisfied ego (no circumspect psychological insecurities or of a felt need to proof/validate identity associations of gender, abilities, intelligence, etc.), scar-free interactive psychological truth (never felt derisively underestimated or had declared goals disparaged and/or discouraged) and/or of no passion to defy odds-- less likely to endure pursuits of actualization that requires grit. Some form of anticipated internal resolution, validation or balm-- beyond the externalized actualization pursuit-- exists in the long view of a grit-driven pursuit, I believe.

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@TheSnowdolphin

2 weeks ago

If you are not a gritty person, it's OK, there's lots of ways your life can succeed. YES THANK YOU!!!

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@ThomasToPC

2 weeks ago

Yin-yang is chaotic manifestations; taiji is the orderly existence of the whole... if I was to apply this side of classical Chinese philosophy. This of course in no way detracts from what a great talk this is. Thank you!

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@elpina587

7 months ago

Got me thinking already

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@carlfletcherjunior9076

1 week ago

This was one of the best lectures ive ever watched in my life. Loved it

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@mathgeek7966

7 months ago

Great lecture, thank you for posting it!

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@An-yq6oy

1 month ago

Great lecture! Thanks

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@GrigorySapunov

1 month ago

Thanks for the talk! I enjoyed watching it with my kid!

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@xlerb2286

3 weeks ago

A relatively minor point in the talk as a whole but the bit about grit being a good indicator of success is spot on in my experience. I've worked in a technical field for ~30 years so I've observed plenty of folk through those years. Grit is a much better measure of how good an engineer a person will make than GPA or similar.

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@grantbeerling4396

1 month ago

John Maynard Keynes 'principle of uncertainty' in economics states that we can predict the very near future with some degree of success, but the more distant, the more uncertain we become; thus, mathematical modelling in economics is not a science of absolutes; rather, it's a social science of human infinite variability—a perfect example of chaos theory. Daniel Kahneman later backed this up in behavioural economic theory. Also Adam Smith wrote, that the market in the long run will return to an equilibrium, to which Keyens replied, in the long run we're all dead! (ie the disaster that was 1930s and the 2010s, both unnecessary suffering, we can always afford a war, so let's win the peace).

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@icenarsin5283

1 month ago

Wonderful lecture!

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@jacksonp2008

1 month ago

Very interesting, highly recommended

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@billtensus

1 month ago

I like Ronald Fischer, from being a Eug@nics advocate to going 80 years ageless teaching at Oxford about Himself in "Four Ways of Thinking: Statistical, Interactive, Chaotic and Complex"

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@SSNewberry

1 month ago

Needs an Oxford comma in the title, of course.

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@JeremyHelm

1 month ago

55:11 A pattern is as complex as the length of the shortest description that can be used to produce it. Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov

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