@jeremirusin58

1 year ago

So here's situation one day before election:
1. Law and Justice (conservatives, economically left) has around 35%, but they have support in small villages, which can't be seem in polls.
2. Civic Platform (slightly progressive, economically centrist) has around 28%.
3. Third Way (socially centrist, liberal economically) has around 10% and growing. They're safe, despite having to bypass 8% instead of 5%, like the rest (that's because they're coallition, made of PSL and Poland2050), because they won debate on TV, and the rest of opposition knows, that if they don't exceed the electoral threshold, LaJ could possibly rule on its own.
4. The Left, which is suprisingly, left-wing in every aspect, has around 10% as well.
5. Confederacy (far-right in every aspect) rose from 5% to 15%, only to fall to 9%. They have some hidden electorate tho and can have third place.

Most important thing is what will happen after election. Both Law and Justice and Civic Platform will be looking for allies and may cut single parliamentaries, no entire parties. Everything depends on smaller parties. A lot is said about Civic Platform - Third Way - The Left coalition and Law and Justice - Confederacy coalition, but other ones aren't unlikely.

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