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106,435 Views • Feb 23, 2024 • Click to toggle off description
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A longer version of this video is on our channel -- it goes into more depth about the AI revolution happening in meteorology.
We’ve learned how to predict weather over the past century by understanding the science that governs Earth’s atmosphere and harnessing enough computing power to generate global forecasts. But in just the past three years, AI models from companies like Google, Huawei, and Nvidia that use historical weather data have been releasing forecasts rivaling those created through traditional forecasting methods.
This video explains the promise and challenges of these new models built on artificial intelligence rather than numerical forecasting, particularly as it relates to the ability to foresee extreme weather.
Here are the papers that describe the models mentioned in the video.
Google’s GraphCast: www.science.org/stoken/author...
Huawei’s Pangu-Weather: www.nature.com/articles/s4158...
Nvidia’s FourCastNet: arxiv.org/abs/2202.11214
Here is the announcement of the ERA5 dataset, released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in 2020:
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/...
Google has also developed a weather forecasting model called Nowcasting, which is already embedded in its weather products specifically for short-term precipitation forecasts:
deepmind.google/discover/blog...
If you’re interested in learning more about the history of how we developed weather forecasting, I’d recommend The Weather Machine by Andrew Blum:
www.amazon.com/Weather-Machin...
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Views : 106,435
Genre: News & Politics
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RYD date created : 2024-09-20T13:02:07.494553Z
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71 Comments
Top Comments of this video!! :3
The video is sponsored by Microsoft 365, an AI company, but you haven't marked this short as sponsored too. Like you're required to do.
138 |
The difference is, AI just makes guesses based on past data when Weather models truly calculate probabilities of data evolution based on previous data AND strong, robust and tweekable modelization.
93 |
The 6 hour limit is not determined by computing power -- at least not since the late 1980's. This limit is simply the frequency of measuring and broadcasting new data by most major meteorological stations.
53 |
Thats like trading Einstein for the Oracle of Delphi.The two can synergize, but we shouldn't replace one with the other.
4 |
How are the models accounting for climate change?
87 |
Now I know why the weekly forecast changes every time I look.
5 |
Producing forecasts isn't the problem, but the precision and reliability of these prediction, imagine that with all the current computing power allocated for weather and climate patterns prediction, we can be relatively sure that the preriction are reliable at a useful level for at most 3 days, usually less because the reliability falls the longer the prediction window, yet how may times forecasts are wrong because weather is a chaotic system, so small deviations compound to ever greater changes.
How many days the AIs forecast is consistently reliable?
3 |
If they predict the weather like they make pictures of people with an extra arm, I'm good with original forecasting. They need to chill with AI until it's ready. It's half-baked.
4 |
This is not an end point. It is only a point in progression. AI will only get better.
5 |
Where can we access them?
6 |
So... we might finally have the perfect Back to the Future 2015 weather predictions?? 😄
4 |
We need quantum conputers for weather forecasts bro 😢
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Think what AI + quantum computing can do in future
|
Not a computer scientist or a meteorologist but the weather is inherently unpredictable. Trying to predict weather forecasts based off of the previous 40 years of weather patterns seems like a poor plan with a limited data set.
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☁️
6 |
So replace finite element analysis with models that are not easily interpretable or whose causality is not easily demonstrated. This is like manna from heaven for those engaged in spreading misinformation about climate change who will simply need to state that these models are unreliable and wrong, anytime some unrelated machine learning model goods up.
17 |
..🫶 NASA.
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Fahrenheit💀
|
Weather and climate arent the same thing
7 |
@ameliekk
8 months ago
No mention how accurate these AI predictions are
447 |