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243,430 Views • Oct 29, 2024 • Click to toggle off description
Produced by Matt Beat.
Sources/further reading:
www.publiusthegeek.com/2018/06/a-history-of-pollin…
Moon, N. (1999). Opinion polls - History, theory and practice. Manchester: Manchester University Press.
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In 1936, President Franklin Roosevelt ran for re-election. His main opponent? Alf Landon, the Governor of Kansas.
Throughout the year, a magazine known as The Literary Digest polled its readers, asking who they were voting for. Roosevelt or Landon? They sent out an impressive 10 million ballots and got back more than 2 million responses. According to the ballots, Landon would win the popular vote 57% to 43%. Indeed, they predicted Landon would win in a landslide.
Uhhh, but no. Absolutely not. In fact, the exact opposite happened. Roosevelt beat Landon in one of the most lopsided presidential election victories in American history.
The actual result? Roosevelt won 62% of the popular vote with Landon only getting 37%. The Literary Digest overestimated Landon’s support by 20 percentage points.
So why did The Literary Digest get it so wrong? Mainly because there was a participation bias, meaning the volunteers who actually responded were just generally not a good sample of the entire population. For example, it was mostly wealthier voters who responded, when most Roosevelt voters were not wealthy.
The Literary Digest lost a lot of credibility due to this election, and would stop publishing four years after the election
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524 Comments
Top Comments of this video!! :3
And here I thought that "Dewey beats Truman" in 1948 was the worst prediction.
1.1K |
Those were still Great Depression days, people who replied were people who could actually afford a magazine subscription, something that many people at the time couldn't. Definitely wasn't a wise move
684 |
I'm in grad school right now taking a research methods class and we literally talked about this last night. they way they sent out the ballots (for sampling) were via auto records and home ownership records. since the depression was going on, a lot of people had to sell their homes or go into foreclosure, and those who didn't were mostly wealthy people who tended to support republicans. the literary digest had actually correctly predicted the election results in 1920, 1924, 1928, and 1932, but they screwed up this one bad because their sampling wasn't proportional to the actual population.
233 |
Alf Landon also lived a very long life. He only died in 1987.
280 |
“Is our face red” at least their answer was funny
151 |
I misread the title as "The worst U.S presidential election in history"
110 |
Started watching your videos about a year ago. Thanks for providing such a solid education in American history and economics. You’ve been a huge influence in how I voted in this election. I’m incredibly grateful of you and your videos.
2 |
Another fun fact FDR'S strongest state in that election was South Carolina winning 98 percent of the vote
33 |
Damn that ended their entire newspaper
27 |
That same bias is still a very real thing in modern polls, so take any poll you see with a grain of salt. They've been off before, and they can be off again
43 |
Love having these little pieces of trivia on the side on top of all the great longer form content. Keep up the fantastic work, sir 🫡
10 |
For anyone wondering why Alaska and Hawaii are not on the map, they weren’t states at the time. They were still territories.
13 |
2024: hold my beer.
18 |
You the best Mr. Beat 👍
50 |
Fun fact: If Roosevelt did lose this election and was a 1 term president, his one term would've been slightly shorter than 4 years. This was the first election in which the 20th ammendment went into effect which moved inauguration day from March 4th to January 20th.
46 |
Meanwhile, Gallup got a lot more credibility, since it predicted FDR's reelection.
15 |
a good reminder that the things we consider "obvious" today (sampling bias, margin of error, etc.) were once epiphanies
10 |
Bros blessing us with content lol!
Love it man.
7 |
Imagine predicting a election so bad you go out of business.
5 |
@MeesterTweester
3 weeks ago
This is why adjusting for bias is so important in polling. Additionally, only 2.38 million responses were sent back out of 10 million, with the anti-Roosevelt minority more invested in the election than the pro-Roosevelt majority.
1.7K |