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Date : 1732518045482 - unknown on Apple WebKit
Mystery text : OFJFTXg0Sjl1ZTggaSAgbG92ICB1IGV1LXByb3h5LnBva2V0dWJlLmZ1bg==
143 : true
773,552 Views • Feb 3, 2023 • Click to toggle off description
Views : 773,552
Genre: Science & Technology
License: Standard YouTube License
Uploaded At Feb 3, 2023 ^^
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Rating : 4.739 (2,175/31,209 LTDR)
93.48% of the users lieked the video!!
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User score: 90.22- Overwhelmingly Positive
RYD date created : 2024-11-18T01:48:18.550112Z
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2,746 Comments
Top Comments of this video!! :3
He's most likely to open the door on the last try. Once it's open he's not going to keep trying. But then he is drunk.
1.1K |
As a drunken person, I find this most encouraging!
826 |
That's the probability that that try will be the one he gets it on, not the probability he gets it on that try. It's more rare for him to take a while, but the odds of each try are still the same once the try comes.
5 |
He's also most likely to get it the first try because he always tries the first time.
147 |
Its in the way the question is asked. The probability of each try is 1/10. But since she is asking on which try is he more likely to get the key right, the answer is the first try, since you would have to get the wrong key to move to the next try.
125 |
I'm pretty sure a drunken person will fail to open the door even when they select the right key 😁
189 |
lol the question is tricky:
"On which try is he most likely to open the door?"
Yeah your math is fine.
"On which try is he most likely to find the key?"
Then they are all 1/10.
The difference is that the first one means: "finding the key first"
79 |
That actually doesn't seem too counterintuitive to me, keeping in mind we're looking at the chance of him finding the keys on any particular iteration.
It's also true that the probability of finding it within, say, the first five attempts (eg. P1 + P2 + P3 + P4 + P5) is going to be much higher than him finding it, specifically, on the sixth attempt.
1 |
The key to understanding this paradox is that something can be the most likely while still being not very likely because every other option is even less likely
576 |
A woman watches her drunk neighbor trying to unlock his door with a cigarette. - You're not likely to open the door with a cigarette - she says ironically. "Damn," the guy says, coming to his senses and examining the cigarette in his hand, "that means I have smoked the whole key!"
137 |
This reminds me of the says, "It's always the last place you look." Of course it is, because once you find it, you stop looking.
174 |
This is why I bring a key ring with just the house key when I go drinking. Makes the probability calculation a lot easier which is important when you're drunk.
132 |
This didn't make sense at first, until I stopped seeing each try as a single event
As a singular event, each key try is the same probability. But as one whole event, it makes more sense that the first try is the most likely to suceed
1 |
That's just weird phrasing meant to throw you off. If you look at the probsbility of getting in after N tries, then the probability goes to 100% as N goes up. But getting in on EXACTLY the Nth try goes to 0 as N gets larger. Its actually very intuitive.
1 |
For anyone who is confused.
10 coin tosses or dice rolls don't include the 'getting in' part, which is why the outcomes are independent of the outcome of the previous tosses or rolls.
Here, the 'getting in' part means that you can't initiate another completely independant toss or roll, since getting in means not attempting the rest of the trials, a rule which is absent from your normal probability maths class.
This is very similar to the Monty Hall problem, where the idea that doors were excluded changes the way you calculate probability for the final attempt.
You can also do a reductio ad absurdum to better understand this.
Ask yourself: how likely is it that the drunken man will open the door on his 1 trillionth try and NOT BEFORE that? the chances would be really slim, since one of the '1 out of 10' trillion tries before that try should (probably) succeed, the earlier it is, the more likely.
371 |
She's talking about the likelihood of picking the correct key on a specific attempt, NOT the likelihood of picking the correct key in general, which is always 1/10. The more attempts you do, the more likely it is that you get the right key eventually, through sheer luck. Let's say you picked a key 1000 times. Each attempt you still had a 1/10 chance of picking the right one, but the probability of it taking THAT LONG to get to the correct one is extremely low.
161 |
This reminds me of the time I was in the Air Force and had a little too much one night and arrived back at my dorm room only to find the door was locked. So I knocked on the door to be let in. The trouble was, I was the only person who lived there so no one answered and I became frustrated. Eventually, I realized I needed the keys which were in my pocket. So naturally, I proceeded to do the only reasonable thing at the time and removed my pants and left them in heap in front of the door. Still, the door refused to open. I was overcome with distress at this point and retreated to the lobby where I fell asleep on the couch until I woke up enough to realize the magic trick was to use the keys to unlock the door, which I then did, in all the glory of my underpants and everything. It was humiliating and stupid.
Moral of the story; Know when to say when.
Also, you can eat cake, but it will not be conducive to your training.
125 |
While the probability of success for such a series of trials maybe greatest on the first try the expected number of trials is not equal to 1. He's expected to be hunting for his keys far far longer than that.
1 |
I take 10 minutes to walk to the pub. I take quite a bit longer to walk home: the difference is simply staggering. I have just one key but I can’t get the door into the key for ages.
14 |
@Izzy-qf1do
1 year ago
It's probable it's not his house.
4.6K |